7 in 10 households in Ethiopia didn’t buy toothpaste in the past year. This is not a marginal gap. It’s a structural one.

Across most African markets, toothpaste is a daily habit and penetration typically exceeds 95%, with multiple purchases per year.

Ethiopia looks very different.

A market defined by non-users, not light users

It’s tempting to view Ethiopia as a low-usage market. But the data tells a very different story. This is not a case of consumers buying less frequently – it’s a case of consumers not buying at all.

With the majority of households not using toothpaste, the category is still in its early stages of development. The implication is critical: there is no habit yet to optimise or trade up.

Why toothpaste hasn’t scaled yet

The dynamics in Ethiopia are shaped by a combination of structural factors:

• Low awareness of oral hygiene habits and preventive care
• Continued use of traditional methods like chewing sticks and miswak, seen as sufficient
• Affordability constraints, with consumers prioritising essentials

A historically low focus on oral health within the broader healthcare system Oral diseases such as dental caries remain widespread, yet preventive behaviours like daily brushing with fluoride toothpaste are still far from universal. The gap isn’t just commercial – it’s behavioural and systemic.

Rethinking growth: from share gain to habit creation

When the majority of consumers are not in the category, traditional commercial levers fall short.

• Loyalty programmes don’t work when there’s no habit to be loyal to
• Your biggest competitor isn’t another brand – it’s not brushing
• Growth depends on building the category from the ground up

A long-term opportunity

For Osato Igbinadolor, Country Manager for East Africa at Worldpanel by Numerator: “Ethiopia is one of the clearest examples of a true category-building market in FMCG today. The upside is significant. Converting non-users into users unlocks growth that goes far beyond brand switching – it expands the entire market.”

Igbinadolor adds: “Ethiopia isn’t about competing harder – it’s about building the habit first. When you create the behaviour, growth follows. That’s where the real opportunity lies.”

Understanding markets like Ethiopia requires a shift in mindset, from short-term performance to long-term category development.

If you want to identify where your next wave of growth will come from, start by understanding the consumers who are not yet in your category. We bring deep knowledge and expertise on the Ethiopian consumer. Get in touch to build your growth strategy.

Mohammed Redwan
Consumer Insight Manager East Africa
Worldpanel by Numerator

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