In the first week, following the onset of tensions, weekly FMCG spending increased by up to 29%, primarily driven by larger basket sizes rather than more frequent shopping trips. Initial insights also suggest that this shift reflects a measured and practical response. Rather than widespread stockpiling, households appear to be focusing on essential needs, with increased purchases linked to more meals consumed at home, greater emphasis on value and affordability, and a preference for longer shelf-life products.
Categories such as staples, packaged foods and convenience items – more specifically salty snacks, edible oil, noodles, yoghurt, flour, UHT milk, bottled water, biscuits, sauces and canned tuna – saw increased penetration, alongside continued demand across both online and offline channels. Retail dynamics also show early signs of change, with discounters seeing the strongest growth as consumers seek value-oriented options.
Moderate shifts, not extreme behaviour
While spending increased during the early phase, the data does not indicate large-scale or sustained stockpiling behaviour. When compared to previous periods of disruption, including the COVID-19 pandemic, current shifts appear more moderate and controlled.
Ramadan patterns also show some variation this year, with less consistent purchasing peaks and signs that external factors may have influenced the timing of shopping activity.
“What we are seeing is a measured adjustment rather than a reaction driven by panic. Households are prioritising essentials and adapting routines, while remaining mindful of spending”, said Alan Roy, General Manager Middle East, Worldpanel by Numerator.
What to monitor in the coming weeks
As the situation continues to evolve, several trends may develop further:
- Continued focus on in-home consumption
- Larger, more planned shopping missions
- Increased sensitivity to price and value
- Sustained demand for convenience and long shelf-life products
Different shopper groups may also respond in distinct ways, which could shape demand patterns across categories in the weeks ahead.
If you need support in understanding these behavioural shifts or would like further clarity or access a more detailed deck, our team is here to help, get in touch.
Alan Roy
General Manager Middle East
Worldpanel by Numerator
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